Author Archives: ffguru4

What the Draft Kings and FanDuel Merger Means

For daily fantasy fans… not for the next year. Even though the merger was in fact announced recently, it will take about a year for everything to take place. A lot of the details have not yet emerged such as what the new company will be called, or when the exact date will happen. In fact nothing has come out about what it means for the fans once the merger actually does come to fruition. The one thing that is certain is that it was all done to help bring in more profit to these two DFS sites. So that basically means they are here to stay for the long term.

Due to all of the legal fees that FanDuel and Draft Kings had to pay for ( they spent about 8 million in fees in the Q4 alone) and the settlement with New York State (12 million plea deal with both companies), they needed an increase in revenue. This is just another example of the rich continuing to get rich.

As for fans, sit tight for now. There are no real changes that you should be concerned about at the moment. If you want more information check out  the Forbes article detailing the merger. Otherwise, enjoy the last few weeks of the football season.

Next Year Way To Early First Round Draft

I decided to have a little bit of fun with this post. I will predict which picks will go in the first round of a Standard and PPR 10 team league. Let’s get started.

Pick 1 (Standard): David Johnson (Ari); Pick 1 (PPR): David Johnson.                                        This really came down between two players. Between David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. Both players are very similar. They control the backfield carries, and are both lethal in the passing game. They both even spend a lot of time running designed routes for them within the offense as a wide receiver. The reason I go with Johnson is because he has no injury history (Bell does) and has no history of getting in trouble (Bell does). So this was pretty Easy.

Pick 2 (Standard): Le’Veon Bell (Pit). Pick 2 (PPR): Le’Veon Bell.                                               See above

Pick 3 (Standard): Ezekiel Elliot (Dal). Pick 3 (PPR): Antonio Brown (Pit).                               The first difference in the draft. Elliot is explosive, and running behind probably the best offensive line in football. He competes with no one for touches, and Morris vultures the occasional touchdown, but not enough to make a true impact. A standard League owner’s dream. However, in PPR, you cant go wrong with Brown. He is never injured, and is always going to be one of the more consistent wide outs in football. He plays in a dynamic offense and with a dynamic Quarterback. Safe and elite pick.

Pick 4(Standard): Antonio Brown (Pit). Pick 4 (PPR): Julio Jones (Atl).                                      See above for Antonio Brown. Even in standard league, I like him more than the likes of some of the other premier running back. But Julio Jones might be the most dynamic wideout in the game. Freakishly athletic, and a crisp route runner. This is the same guy who had a 300 yard game this year. The only issue is sometimes the injury bug hits him. But you have to take that risk.

Pick 5 (Standard) Julio Jones (Atl). Pick 5 (PPR): Ezekiel Elliot (Dal).                                       Look above for both of these players. They are both way to talented and gifted for them to slide any lower; no matter what league this is. If this is a dynasty league, Elliot goes third no matter what the format is.

Pick 6 (Standard) Mike Evans (TB). Pick 6 (PPR) Mike Evans.                                                        If Tampa Bay in the off-season acquires another outside threat for Winston then I move Evans down my draft board until the second round. But if the offense looks like how it looks now, Evans deserves to go this high. His size is too big for defense to guard one on one. And his target share is the best in the league. And his touchdown rate is good enough where he should right now in standard leagues as well.

Pick 7 (Standard) Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG). Pick 7 (PPR) Odell Beckham Jr.                          Talk about talent, there may not be a wide receiver more talented than Odell. His talent alone will get you and Eli Manning touchdowns. When an elite talent drops this low to you in the draft, you have to take him. And I’m not all that concerned about Sterling Sheppard. Odell will still get his.

Pick 8 (Standard) Lesean McCoy (BUF). Pick 8 (PPR): AJ Green (CIN)                                    McCoy almost went 8th in both formats right here. Hes the same explosive McCoy we saw a few years ago when he led the league in rushing. Injuries is always a concern since he is a small body. But he is still young enough to make his impact felt. AJ Green might end the year with an injury, but its not serious. Great route runner and great deep ball threat. One of the few match-up proof wide-outs still left on the board.

Pick 9 (Standard) Demarco Murray. (TEN) Pick 9 (PPR): Lesean McCoy (Buf).                        See above for McCoy. I don’t see Murray having the same year he had this year. I can see Derrick Henry having more of a role next year as well. But Still a quality running back, behind a very good offensive line, and really good quarterback. Should still give you 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Pick 10 (Standard) Adrian Peterson (MIN). Pick 10 (PPR) Rob Gronkowski (NE).            Ending the first round with a few injury prone players. If AP can defeat father time again, he should have no issues breaking the 1000 yard barrier again next year. The team is going to need him to be an effective offense. Gronk is a risk worth taking as well. If he stays healthy, you basically win your tight end match-up every week. If healthy, guaranteed 10 touchdown season.

Things to Be Thankful For (Fantasy Edition)

Here are a few things to be thankful for during this holiday season.

The Ageless Wonders: Once again, the Quarterback position is a position of stability. As just like in past seasons, the great quarterbacks have stayed great. Quarterbacks such as Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben, and Tom Brady have been their normal elite self. Each Quarterback is within the top 10 basically every week and has brought consistency across the NFL season.

The New Age Wonders: Some of the New Quarterbacks have stepped up their game this year. Names such as Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins are all young Quarterbacks who have leaped into top 10 territory for the season. All of them (for exception of Cousins which is his 5th year) are in their third season or less. Huge for Dynasty and keeper leagues.

First Round Picks: Subtract Deandre Hopkins, Adrian Peterson, and Todd Gurley, and you will realize that most first round picks have performed up to the measures in which you have them. You ask for consistency out of the early draft Picks. And it seems like most of them have done just that.

Return of the workhorse backs: One man running back committee has been a little bit of a lost art recently, but this year, it has swung back the other way. The following are dominating their workload: David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Demarco Murray, Ezekiel Elliot, Lesean McCoy, and Lamar Miller and Todd Gurley. Some have performed better than others, but the touches are there. They should all be gone by the second round next year.

 

Kirk Cousins Says Pay Him… But Should You Play Him?

Kirk Cousins is in a weird situation as a Quarterback. He has proven himself to be a quality quarterback for over a year and a half now. Known well as the person who backed up RG3 for a few years. But Jay Gruden put his trust into Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, but no one else truly has. Kirk Cousins, after last night’s game shouted at his GM “How you like me now.” This is because Cousins is playing on a Franchise Tag instead of the new contract he wanted last offseason. They wanted more proof. But do the fantasy owners need more proof?

In most 10 team, or even 12 team leagues, he was drafted more as a QB 2. But even when he was criticized in real life early in the season for missing opportunities, he was still pretty good. In standard league scoring, he his first five games of the season point totals were 9,19,18,17,12. Not great but not good awful either. Those included hard games against foes such as dallas, New York Giants, and Baltimore. But in his last five games, his points have been 16,21,24,18,27. That stretch included tough games against teams like Minnesota and the Eagles. But what about the future.

If Kirk Cousins has showed us anything is that he is pretty consistent. He has consistent weapons with Reed, Jackson, and Garcon. It appears the run game is improving. But he does have a tough schedule for the rest of the season which include at Arizona, at Philadelphia, against a good Chicago defense, and a tough Giants Defense. With that said, Kirk Cousins is still a safe play. With only 2 turnovers in his last 4 games, he has been protecting the ball better. And most of the defenses I named is even better against the run, so he will have to throw. Cousins is a safe play the rest of the way but don’t expect too many 25+ point games.

What To Make Of The Eagles Backfield Mess…

Another week, and another week where we don’t know what is going on in Doug Pederson’s offense. First thing to touch on, if you have Carson Wentz on your team, drop him. If he couldn’t do it against the Falcons defense, I don’t know when he will do it. Shouldn’t be owned in anything other than 14-16 team leagues as a backup. Now to get on to the confusing part.. the Eagles backfield.

Yesterday afternoon something interesting happened. Ryan Matthews broke 100 yards and had two touchdowns. Wendell Smallwood, someone who was believed to be disappearing from this offense, had 13 carries, for 70 yards. Darren Sproles stayed involve, he had two carries for 19 yards, and eight catches for 57 yards. Really, a three man split?

Well this is what I make out of this split. The only running back to own is sproles in 10 team leagues. Matthews should be owned in 12 team leagues, and smallwood in 14 team leagues and bigger.

Sproles is still the main focus of the offense. He is in the game on third down, hurry up, two minute offense, and honestly, on first and second down throughout the game. Matthews and Smallwood will take turns (with Sproles) doing the early down work. Most weeks Matthews will get more looks and will get the goaline touches. Smallwood stays involved though, and sometimes he’s not really used at all. To be honest Matthews and Smallwood shouldn’t be started unless needed to. And ideally nothing more than a flex. Sproles is a solid PPR flex, low end standard league flex.

Fantasy Football Depth Chart

There is an interesting article about running back depth chart of every single NFL team. It is slightly confusing, so I will break it down.

They have each team labeled and next to them is the first string player, the second string player and the third string player. At the end of the row, you will see a ranking. So if we are referring to running backs, you may see RB1, RB2, Flex, leave on waiver wire. This does not make reference to the starting running back, but to the backup running back. It states the value of the backup and what his value is if the starter would to get hurt.

The ESPN article  by ESPN’s Mike Clay is constantly updated and reviewed. And there is a breakdown for each position . Take a look if you have lost an important player for a long period of time.

Struggling Stars

Fantasy Owners go through this every year. Sometimes it happens to the same owner in consecutive years. We draft a player, but they don’t perform to your expectations. Hell, sometimes they even bomb all together. But halfway through the season this is the time to make a decision on some of these high draft picks. But here are some of those players that you may need to make a decision on.

Odell_Beckham_Jr..jpgOdell Beckham Jr: If you are in a PPR league you absolutely have to keep him. Unless you get a deal that blows you away or you have too many Wide Receivers, he needs to stay. Standard league is a different situation. Listen at this rate you won’t be getting fair value back. The addition of weapons, weak offensive line, and an erratic Eli Manning has diminished Odell’s value. But he is still a top 5 WR in the game. I would keep faith in Odell, he still has big games ahead of him. For someone who was a top 5 pick in most leagues and top 3 in most PPR, he’s killing you, but stick with him.

RB_Todd_Gurley_II_Rams,_2015.jpgTodd Gurley: I must say this one didn’t surprise me and neither did the next name. But Gurley’s hype is based off of a 5 game stretch last year when he came back from injury. After that stretch reality set in. He is a great running back, behind an awful offensive line, playing for quite frankly a bad team. They are 3-4 now, but don’t see them doing any better than 6-10. He’s finished in single digits in five of his seven games in standard, and finished with less than 13 points in 4 of his 7 games. He’s finished with 20 0r more points just once. Hes suddenly being used in the passing game, so there’s a slight uptick. But if you can sell him for value, I would take it.

Allen Robinson: I knew he wouldn’t have the year he had last year, but the reason its hapenning confuses me. I was on board with the better defense, better running game idea which would lead to less garbage time and throwing. I still thought Robinson would be a top 15 Wideout. Coming into this week he was the 34th ranked Wideout in PPR. Subtract his two touchdown game in week 3, he has not scored more than 16 fantasy points in a game all season in a PPR league. Three out of those five games were singe digit scoring… in PPR! You probably won’t get much back for him now. Time to bench him until you see something worth playing. Blame Bortles, he looks awful.

Military service members honored during Chicago bears gameAlshon Jeffrey: He may be a little maddening to you at this point for some one reason, he has not reached the end zone. But with that said he has been consistent. Aside from two games, he has at least 5 catches and 70 yards in four of the five other games. That last game he had only four catches, but 105 yards. And if you would of told me Brian Hoyer was going to get knocked out the game this past week, I could of predicted Jeffrey’s low point total. But Jay Cutler is coming back soon. And you know he loves to force the ball to Jeffrey. Be patient, good days are coming.

23101745414_eb54c55b03_mRussell Wilson: In real life I’m a fan. But in fantasy, at least this year, not so much. He is playing with an injury, which explains some of his poor performances. He can’t real run  and move the way he wants to. As a result it is hurting his fantasy value, but helping players such as Jimmy Graham. Solid Chance you may not have much better, but if you have a top 15 QB, don’t be afraid to play them over Russ at this point. Also look for streamers, they may pay off week to week.